Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.620622 2.129633 2.813261 3.821041 5.308509e+00 7.490012e+00 1.106461e+01
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 1.173559 1.761086 2.699018 4.393452 7.593231e+00 1.389722e+01 2.891884e+01
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.879897 1.472188 2.567126 4.947085 1.068020e+01 2.629205e+01 8.618150e+01
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.690312 1.272234 2.503076 5.709451 1.571893e+01 5.589932e+01 3.654495e+02
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.547123 1.096712 2.408265 6.468381 2.306875e+01 1.291965e+02 2.660056e+03
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.411522 0.877223 2.094102 6.413525 2.869977e+01 2.562172e+02 3.234217e+04
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.309063 0.691104 1.763957 6.029788 3.311651e+01 4.835249e+02 3.249691e+06
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.251872 0.593862 1.635680 6.370926 4.553927e+01 1.432865e+03 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.218617 0.546295 1.639987 7.460501 7.541274e+01 9.347616e+03 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.195198 0.516955 1.696311 9.143451 1.418479e+02 3.411531e+05 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.168087 0.464728 1.631935 10.079994 2.310127e+02 2.181495e+11 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.140170 0.398614 1.464686 9.944899 3.078683e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.114389 0.332731 1.268552 9.323742 3.796070e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.100739 0.304394 1.236356 10.462927 7.364538e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.088727 0.277274 1.192482 11.528579 1.488546e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.079573 0.257462 1.176098 13.167783 3.816890e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.071372 0.238167 1.149077 14.786237 1.125778e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.061517 0.208288 1.031507 14.216942 1.935194e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.052565 0.179376 0.901009 12.898067 2.518634e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.047148 0.164101 0.854516 13.496853 8.079523e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.043975 0.157647 0.867139 16.000364 1.554848e+06 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.041702 0.154486 0.904171 20.082846 NaN NaN NaN
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 0.038423 0.145323 0.885161 22.275039 NaN NaN NaN